Earthquake-Q · forecast issued 2025-01-01 · provisional 1,551-cell grid

Aftershock Risk Map

Click any point, such as an epicenter, to see the chance of at least one M≥2.0 earthquake within 100 km: per 30-day window for emergency crews, and over the next six months for repair crews.

Map shows Jump to a place

What each band meant in practice

30-day forecasts on 767,745 test cell-windows (2021–2023). Observed rate is how often an M≥2.0 event actually followed.

Band	Forecast	Avg forecast	Observed
Low	0%–1%	0.1%	0.2%
Guarded	1%–5%	2.0%	1.8%
Elevated	5%–20%	11.9%	11.6%
High	20%–50%	28.7%	25.9%
Very high	50%–100%	76.1%	67.7%

Choosing an entry threshold

If crews enter only where the 30-day forecast is below the cut-off, this is what happened on test data. The acceptable level is a decision for emergency managers, not the model.

Cut-off	Cells cleared	Event rate there	Events missed
0.5%	49%	0.16%	1.0%
1.0%	53%	0.19%	1.3%
2.0%	59%	0.31%	2.4%
5.0%	64%	0.46%	3.9%
10.0%	73%	1.38%	13.4%
20.0%	89%	3.60%	42.3%